*Air France jet missing over Atlantic*

[joeyb747]

Air France tail found; US helps hunt black boxes

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20090607/Brazil.Plane/

Very nice! You beat me to it! I was just going to link to this very story! 

Disheartening to see the tail panel in the water...

[Saabeba]

No, the cabin windows can withstand much greater force than that.  Plus, these storms aren't the typical Midwest storms you see in the U.S.  Tropical systems rarely contain hail.  And it is likely that these storms did not have hail.  Of course, we don't know that, but normal tropical thunderstorms do not produce much hail.  Also, supercell type thunderstorms don't usually form along the Equator.  There are only a few spots in the world where supercell thunderstorms form.

I lived in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia, the other side of Africa, but not far from the equator.  The summer rain season that is caused by the intercontinental convergence regularly sends marble sized hail to the ground at ground level.  You have to find shelter.

[vianded]

they are talking about 21/22 days till the batteries on the black boxes run out of juice. is that just for the "pinging" or after the 30 days all data is lost? lets say they don't find them in that time frame but they keep looking and are found at a later time... is the data still safe? and I know about a bunch of other variables but will loosing battery power make you loose data? sorry if I'm being redundant

[MathFox]

they are talking about 21/22 days till the batteries on the black boxes run out of juice. is that just for the "pinging" or after the 30 days all data is lost? lets say they don't find them in that time frame but they keep looking and are found at a later time... is the data still safe? and I know about a bunch of other variables but will loosing battery power make you loose data? sorry if I'm being redundant

The 30 days is the minimum time the box should ping to pass certification... It makes sense to listen out for pings a few days past the month.

[joeyb747]

24 bodies found now...

"But some Air France pilots aren't waiting for a definitive answer. With investigators looking at the possibility that external speed monitors iced over and gave dangerously false readings to cockpit computers in a thunderstorm, a union is urging pilots to refuse to fly Airbus A330 and A340 planes unless the monitors — known as Pitot tubes — are replaced."

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-world/20090607/Brazil.Plane/

[blavatsky3]

FROm ACTMAN

Submarines are not designed nor equipped to scan the ocean floor.  They are meant to scan the surface.  So, no, a submarine (nor three) wouldn't help find it plus you have to take into account that this aircraft crashed into a very treacherous part of the Atlantic where extremely high underwater mountains are present.  Sending in a military submarine would be another disaster waiting to happen.

So why is the media saying that a French Nuclear Submarine is going to look for the Black Box on Wednesday ?

Somebody has got to get their story straight.

Was the plane brought down in some JFK style plot to get rid of these HIGH PROFILE CRIME FIGHTERS look here...

Pablo Dreyfus

Ronald Dreyer

Key figures in global battle against illegal arms trade lost in Air France crash
ARGENTINA: Argentine campaigner Pablo Dreyfus and Swiss colleague Ronald Dreyer battled South American arms and drug trafficking
From Andrew McLeod

AMID THE media frenzy and speculation over the disappearance of Air France's ill-fated Flight 447, the loss of two of the world's most prominent figures in the war on the illegal arms trade and international drug trafficking has been virtually overlooked.

Pablo Dreyfus, a 39-year-old Argentine who was travelling with his wife Ana Carolina Rodrigues aboard the doomed flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, had worked tirelessly with the Brazilian authorities to stem the flow of arms and ammunition that for years has fuelled the bloody turf wars waged by drug gangs in Rio's sprawling favelas.

Also travelling with Dreyfus on the doomed flight was his friend and colleague Ronald Dreyer, a Swiss diplomat and co-ordinator of the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence who had worked with UN missions in El Salvador, Mozambique, Azerbaijan, Kosovo and Angola. Both men were consultants at the Small Arms Survey, an independent think tank based at Geneva's Graduate Institute of International Studies. The Survey said on its website that Dryer had helped mobilise the support of more than 100 countries to the cause of disarmament and development.

Buenos Aires-born Dreyfus had been living in Rio since 2002, where he and his sociologist wife worked with the Brazilian NGO Viva Rio.

"Pablo will be remembered as a gentle and sensitive man with an upbeat sense of humour," said the Small Arms Survey. "He displayed an intellectual curiosity and a determined work ethic that excited and enthused all who worked with him."

According to the International Action Network on Small Arms Control (IANSA), Dreyfus's work was instrumental in the introduction of landmark small arms legislation in Brazil in 2003. Under this legislation, an online link was created between army and police databases listing production, imports and exports of arms and ammunition in Brazil.

Dreyfus was an advocate of the stringent labelling of ammunition by weapons firms, arguing that by clearly identifying ammunition not only by its producer but also its purchaser, the likelihood of weapons being sourced by criminals from corrupt police or armed forces personnel is greatly reduced.

Though a Brazilian referendum on the right to bear arms was rejected in 2005, Viva Rio says the campaign should be considered a success because half a million weapons were voluntarily handed in to the authorities. Anti-gun activists put the referendum defeat down to fears criminals would circumvent the law and continue to gain access to small arms the usual way - through Paraguay and other bordering countries. This was not an irrational fear: until 2004, when Paraguay bowed to Brazilian pressure, even foreign tourists were allowed to purchase small arms simply by presenting a photocopy of their identity card. Dreyfus knew that many of the weapons from the so-called tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina were reaching Rio drug gangs.

When unidentified gunmen made off with a stash of hand grenades from an Argentine military garrison in 2006, Dreyfus deplored what he said was lax security at military depots across the world. "If a supermarket can keep control of the amount of peas it has in stock, surely a military organisation could and should be able to do the same with equal if not greater efficiency with its weapons," he said. "The key words are logisitics, control, security."

When Rio agents smashed a cell of drug traffickers who had sourced their weapons from the tri-border area, Dreyfus noted its leaders were prominent businessmen living in apartments in the plush Rio suburbs of Ipanema and São Corrado, "not in the favelas".

In a recent report posted on the Brazilian website Comunidade Segura (Safe Community), Dreyfus noted that the Brazilian arms firm CBC (Companhia Brasileira de Cartuchos) had become one of the world's biggest ammunition producers by purchasing Germany's Metallwerk Elisenhutte Nassau (MEN) in 2007, and Sellier & Bellot (S&B) of the Czech Republic in March. This would not be particularly noteworthy but for the fact that CBC's exports had tapered off in recent years due to legislation restricting exports to Paraguay, arms that often found their way back into Brazil and on to the Rio drug gangs - the "boomerang effect", as Dreyfus called it. "The commercial export of weapons and ammunition from Brazil to the bordering countries stopped in 2001," wrote Dreyfus. "CBC lost commercial markets in Latin America, but Brazil won in public security."

However, manufacturers from other countries had moved in to fill the void, and before its purchase by CBC, S&B was already "one of the marks most currently apprehended" by Brazilian police. Dreyfus said that, in view of the fact the Czech Republic was bound by the EU Code of Conduct on weapons exports - which states that EU countries must "evaluate the existence of the risk that the armament can be diverted to undesirable final destinations", CBC should "consider the risk that some of these exports end up, via diversions, feeding violence in Brazil".

Though his focus was on Latin America, Dreyfus also advised the government of Mozambique and at the time of his death was preparing to do the same for the government of Angola, where stockpiles of weapons left over from the civil war continue to pose a security problem.

Dreyfus and Dreyer were on their way to Geneva to present the latest edition of the Small Arms Survey handbook, of which Dreyfus was a joint editor. It was to have been their latest step in their relentless fight against evil.

from

http://www.sundayherald.com/international/shinternational/display.var.2512885.0.0.php

and here

http://www.911oz.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=4731

[atcman23]

It's official... the rumor mill is all fired up.

Why are the French sending in a nuclear submarine... I have no clue.  But, it's not like it's going to be able to go to extreme depths with the mountainous terrain in the area.

Plus, it's too early to get a story.  But people love rumors.  I highly doubt this plane was sabotaged or if terrorism was involved.  As of right now, there is absolutely no evidence that would lead to that.

[Saabeba]

It may be pressumptive but if the airspeed indicators/ADIRUs are giving differing readings might that also trigger the system to switch off autopilot regardless of manual interaction (or 'real' airspeed)?    

I think you have a point.  Again, per the excellent Times London article:

"The danger was illustrated only weeks later when a different model, an Airbus A319, suddenly found its instruments giving different airspeeds as it flew into Heathrow. At 6,000ft the autopilot disengaged without warning and the captain had to take manual control.

Though suspicions fell on the Adiru, no faults were found. Instead a pitot was discovered to have blockages, causing false speed readings. "

I wonder if the pilots were still hoping the auto-pilot would get them through a much worse than expected storm, when the auto-pilot suddenly dis-engaged due to pitot icing induced airspeed discrepancies, and manual control proved too turbulent.  I have read the plane wreckage is a bit South of the flight path which may indicate a turn around attempt.

[Saabeba]

From Telegraph article:

"the automated messages have revealed that all three external air speed sensors were giving different readings for the plane's velocity, diverging by up to 35 miles per hour – leaving pilots and on-board computer confused over what information to follow. "


I have read that standard operating procedure is to engage auto-pilot during stormy weather at altitude as the margin of safety to fly the plane is too difficult for manual control.  Still, the divergence is smaller than I would have thought.  I am not a pilot.

Looks like Miles O'Bien shed light on the margin for speed at altitude.

"At the other end of the safe speed spectrum is the sound barrier. The wings on an airliner like the A-330are not designed to break the speed of sound. Venture toward Chuck Yeager country and an airliner will begin buffeting. And as altitude increases, the sound barrier decreases -- once again the dearth of air molecules is to blame.

So you see the squeeze play as a plane flies toward the Coffin Corner: the margin between the between the high and low speed limits gets thinner and thinner along with the air.

Given its estimated weight, altitude and the outside air temperature, which also affects air density, AF 447 was flying through the eye of a speed needle only about 25 knots (28 mph) wide.
"

[kyle172]

Does anyone know if this flight was picked up on the Atlantic HF feeds?

[atcman23]

We've been flying with pitot tubes for many, many, years.  Likely greater than 70 years, now.  And now we're all complaining that they are "unsafe."  I don't get it.  The Air France pilots now won't fly aircraft equipped with pitot tubes.  Well, there's not much else out there besides pitot tubes.  And, what happens if the airframe ices over those sensors?  Are we going to complain about that too?  And what if the aircraft did encounter icing?  What if it was a static port block? 

I think some of these "theories" are quite ridiculous and Air France and Airbus are going insane over pitot tubes thinking that is what caused the crash and we haven't even found the aircraft yet.  I'm not saying that pitot tubes don't ice over... they do.  And there are ways to prevent it (pitot heat).  If it happened to fail, then it's a system malfunction nobody had control over.  It's not very likely that it did fail, but it's certainly possible.  In the end, we don't know if it was the pitot tubes that gave false readings and then the crew reacted to the problem in the wrong way.  This stuff we will not know in any certainity whatsoever until the FDR/CVR are recovered. 

Of course, the media is not helping with the pitot tube stuff either.  It's going to make the flying public feel unsafe because a aircraft has a pitot tube (or 5 of them) equipped on the aircraft.  And again, there isn't much out there to replace them and you're not looking at just replacing the pitot tubes, you also need to replace every instrument that depeneds on ram air from the pitot.  That process is long and costly.  And I'm sure the crew would need specialized training on those aircraft equipped with that equipment as it is different from what they are used to flying with and troubleshooting problems would be different.

And I'm not sure what the sound barrier has to deal with here.  That aircraft was probably only cruising at around .75 to .80 Mach  According to the Airbus website, the A330's "typical" cruise speed is Mach 0.82 and has a max operating speed of Mach 0.86.  So if someone is suggesting that the aircraft was flying too fast, I don't think that's going to be possible unless the aircraft was in a steep dive.  In which case, yes it's possible the aircraft could exceed the sound barrier and since it's not designed to exceed the sound barrier, it would break apart.  More realistically, the aircraft would likely break up before it reached the sound barrier.

Lastly, I don't think a airline crew is going to sit there and ponder why the auto pilot disengaged without any real reason.  Their first reaction is going to be to take control of the aircraft.  I don't think pilots sit there "hoping" the auto pilot will do everything for them and work flawlessly.  Auto pilot is not perfect, it does fail without reason, and is not meant to take over the crew's job.  While the auto pilot is engaged, the crew is busy making sure the auto pilot is doing its job by monitoring all the aircraft's instruments and systems.

[kea001]

So why is the media saying that a French Nuclear Submarine is going to look for the Black Box on Wednesday ?

Somebody has got to get their story straight.

Was the plane brought down in some JFK style plot to get rid of these HIGH PROFILE CRIME FIGHTERS look here...

Pablo Dreyfus

Ronald Dreyer

You might want to flog your conspiracy theories on godlikeproductions.com

Personally, I don't see the benefit of going through every conspiracy theory that comes down the pike but I have no doubts you can find an audience.


A passenger on board of a TAM Linhas Aereas Airbus A330-200 registration PT-MVH performing flight JJ-8098 from Sao Paulo Guarulhos (Brazil) to Paris Charles de Gaulle (France) bound to land in Paris about 40 minutes past AF-447 , reported that they were about 4 hours into their flight, when the airplane experienced severe turbulence and began to violently shake. The pilots performed an emergency descent to get into calmer air. Only after about 30 minutes the turbulence ended. Subsequently the airplane reached Paris without further incident.

from:
Aviaton Herald
http://avherald.com/h?article=41a81ef1/0022&opt=4096


Specifics on Airbus pitot tube issue:

Two incidents of note preceding AF-447:

(1) An Air France Airbus A340-300, registration F-GLZL performing flight AF-279 from Tokyo Narita (Japan) to Paris Charles de Gaulle (France), was enroute at FL310, when the airplane went through a line of thunderstorms. The captain's air speed indication suddenly dropped to 140 knots, the systems issued an alert regarding disagreeing speeds (NAV IAS DISCREPANCY), the navigation display showed a tail wind component of 250 knots. The captain released control of the airplane to the first officer and tried to switch his display from ADIRU1 to ADIRU3. 2 minutes later autopilot and autothrust disconnected and the fly by wire changed into alternate law. The crew noticed icing conditions (static air temperature [SAT] -29 degrees Centigrade) and switched anti ice including pitot heating systems from automatic to on. The speed indications became normal again and agreed again, the autoflight systems were reengaged and ATC informed of severe icing. ATC reported, that two flights had just passed the location without problems. When the crew attempted to reset and reengage ADIRU 1 two times, the system again brought the message "NAV IAS DISCREPANCY" on both attempts, although the speed data appeared consistent. The crew suspected polluted pitot tubes.

Maintenance found, that the drainage holes of all three pitot tubes had been clogged, rendering it very likely that weather combined with the clogged drainage holes caused the incident. Maintenance had reported more clogged drainage holes on A330 and A340 aircraft in the past to Airbus Industries. Airbus Industries was aware of the problems, changes had already been introduced to the pitot tubes on the A320 family, where similiar problems had occured. A modification of the A330/A340 pitot tubes was already planned by AI.

(2) An Air France Airbus A340-300, registration F-GLZN performing a flight from Paris Charles de Gaulle (France) to New York JFK,NY (USA), encountered brief turbulence while enroute. The autoflight systems dropped offline, "NAV IAS DISCREPANCY", "NAV PRED W/S DET FAULT" and stall alerts were repeatedly issued during the following two minutes. The airplane continued to JFK without further incident. A review of the policy of retrofitting pitot tubes was recommended and authorities informed.

Air France said, that Airbus Industries had issued a recommendation to retrofit the pitot tubes in September 2007, giving the operators full freedom to decide about the implementation of the recommendation. Air France had implemented the recommendation to their A320 fleet, but did not retrofit the long range A330s and A340s due to the absence of incidents. Starting May 2008 Air France however observed the loss of air data on their A330 and A340 fleet. These incidents were discussed with Airbus Industries, who identified the problems as icing related and suggested that the modification implemented on the A320 would not resolve the icing issue. In the first quarter of 2009 laboratory tests however proved, that the new pitot tube design establishes a significant improvement over the previous design. Following a test flight Air France began to implement the retrofit of the new design pitot tubes onto their A330 and A340 fleet on April 27th 2009. Without prejudice Air France has now decided to accelerate that program to retrofit the pitot tubes on the A330/A340 fleet.

from Aviation Herald:
http://avherald.com/h?article=41a81ef1&opt=4097

[joeyb747]

We've been flying with pitot tubes for many, many, years.  Likely greater than 70 years, now.  And now we're all complaining that they are "unsafe."  I don't get it.  The Air France pilots now won't fly aircraft equipped with pitot tubes.  Well, there's not much else out there besides pitot tubes.  And, what happens if the airframe ices over those sensors?  Are we going to complain about that too?  And what if the aircraft did encounter icing?  What if it was a static port block? 

I understand your point. The underlying issue here is Airbus recommended they be changed for one reason or another, and they were not on this particular airframe. Now the airframe in question is in pieces on the bottom of the ocean. The "faulty" pitot tubes may have had nothing to do with the crash...they may have had everything to do with it. That remains to be seen. At this point, it's all speculation anyway. 

[LeoBern]

I actually have an ATC related question:
Quite early on there were reports that the crew reported flying through 'heavy turbulence'. This hasn't been confirmed (I'm not speaking about whether they flew through the turbulence but rather that they reported it). Presumably this would be done either via a conversation with ATC or other radio comm. I dont know of a system on the AB that allows a manual entry of such information (nor does it show on ACARs, which makes sense given its nature). Has anyone been able to confirm if in fact this message was relayed from the AC?           

[dave]

Latest from Miles O'Brien:

http://trueslant.com/milesobrien/2009/06/08/the-coffin-corner-and-a-mesoscale-maw/

[Saabeba]

Listening to BBC this morning,  the spokesman for the Air France pilots union explained that the pilots would not fly any Airbus that does not have 2 of the 3 pitot tubes upgraded to the new tubes.

The reason he gave for the 2 minimum he explained was because only two of the pitot tubes had t agree for the auto-pilot to remain engaged.  He assured the program that no Air France jet flew today that does not have this in place because the pilot would not fly it.  He explained that the airline achieved this by using upgraded Airbuses, using B747s and B777s.  Due to the challenging economic environment, they have a lot of spare capacity available.

So he implies that the pilots do not want to manually fly these planes at altitude.  Miles O'Brien and other articlesnhave talked about the challenge of flying the plan at that height and even worse in bad weather.

[blavatsky3]

From ATCMAN23

Why are the French sending in a nuclear submarine... I have no clue.  But, it's not like it's going to be able to go to extreme depths with the mountainous terrain in the area.

Well maybe if you listen and read you will learn!

Submarine begins search for Air France jet's black boxes
Last Updated: Wednesday, June 10, 2009 | 8:30 AM ET

CBC News
Brazilian air force officials work in the search-and-rescue operation centre at CINDACTA III Air Force base in Recife in northeastern Brazil on Tuesday. (Roberto Candia/Associated Press)

A French nuclear submarine arrived at the debris field of crashed Air France Flight 447 on Wednesday to begin searching the depths of the Atlantic Ocean for the plane's two black boxes, which should hold clues to the disaster.

The Emeraude sub will be able to trawl patches of about 35 square kilometres per day, said French armed forces spokesman Christophe Prazuck.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/10/air-france-sub-black-box-search375.html

We should be asking questions....
Did the recovered bodies show signs of collision trauma ?
Did the recovered bodies have ear-drum damage ? showing signs of rapid
depressurisation.

Did the bodies have broken bones or no broken bones ?
Did the bodies have bruising (which would be suggestive of collision trauma).

Are they going to be very careful and store the bodies in icy cold water
to allow a more detailed forensic analysis of the cause of death.

More information will be derived from a frozen body than from  a warm body because a warm body will undergo rapid decomposition.

[atcman23]

Sounds like you want an answer at the end of today.  All of those questions you are asking will take lots of time to find out.  Also, since I noticed you are new here.. you'll want to be careful about your comments otherwise the admins will lock out the topic.

[aevins]

Latest from Miles O'Brien:

http://trueslant.com/milesobrien/2009/06/08/the-coffin-corner-and-a-mesoscale-maw/

I think he is not so subtly hinting at this being a repeat of sorts of Southern Airways Flight 242.

[geo0579]

Terror Names Linked To Doomed Flight AF 447
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Terror-Names-Linked-To-Doomed-Flight-AF-447-Two-Passengers-Shared-Names-Of-Radical-Muslims/Article/200906215300405?lpos=World_News_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15300405_Terror_Names_Linked_To_Doomed_Flight_AF_447%3A_Two_Passengers_Shared_Names_Of_Radical_Muslims

Two passengers with names linked to Islamic terrorism were on the Air France flight which crashed with the loss of 228 lives, it has emerged.

Air France debris on board a Brazilian Navy vessel

Debris from Air France flight AF 447 has been recovered from the Atlantic

French secret servicemen established the connection while working through the list of those who boarded the doomed Airbus in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on May 31.

Flight AF 447 crashed in the mid-Atlantic en route to Paris during a violent storm.

While it is certain there were computer malfunctions, terrorism has not been ruled out.

Air France Crash

Soon after news of the fatal crash broke, agents working for the DGSE (Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure), the French equivalent of MI6, were dispatched to Brazil.

It was there that they established that two names on the passenger list are also on highly-classified documents listing the names of radical Muslims considered a threat to the French Republic.

A source working for the French security services told Paris weekly L'Express that the link was "highly significant".

Agents are now trying to establish dates of birth for the two dead passengers, and family connections.

There is a possibility the name similarities are simply a "macabre coincidence", the source added, but the revelation is still being "taken very seriously".

France has received numerous threats from Islamic terrorist groups in recent months, especially since French troops were sent to fight in Afghanistan.

Security chiefs have been particularly worried about airborne suicide attacks similar to the ones on the US on September 11, 2001.

[kea001]

Terror Connection Unlikely In Crash
Despite recent unsourced reports, investigators downplay possibility of terrorism in the crash of Air France Flight 447.


"Two U.S. officials familiar with the investigation into the flight's disappearance say that French authorities had shared the suspicious names from the airliner's passenger list with U.S. authorities, but that initial inquiries did not substantiate indications of any terror connection to the crash. One of the officials, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, says that the two passenger names the French focused on were

...common Middle Eastern names, equivalent in the English language world to names like John Smith."

cont'd here: Newsweek
http://www.newsweek.com/id/201547

[Biff]

Terrorists don't secretly blow up airplanes.  The whole point of terrorism is to leave no doubt that it WAS terrorism.

[joeyb747]

Check this out:

"Replacement monitors for jet models of the same type as the crashed plane arrived three days before the fatal accident, airline chief executive Pierre-Henri Gourgeon told journalists on Thursday."

From this article:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2009/06/11/2009-06-11_air_france_received_replacement_sensors_for_airbus_330_three_days_before_tragic_.html

[kea001]

June 12 (Bloomberg)

O Estado de S. Paulo reported, citing investigators it didn’t identify:

The Air France plane that crashed June 1 may have partly broken up in the air before hitting the Atlantic Ocean:

• Most of the 16 bodies examined in preliminary stages of the probe into the flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris were found naked or with minimal clothing, suggesting the wind may have removed the garments.
• The possibility of an explosion or fire in the jet is also unlikely because the bodies showed no sign of burns.
• Almost all of the bodies had multiple fractures, the paper reported.
• Investigators haven’t found water in the victims’ lungs, which would indicate drowning.
• Bodies were found 85 kilometers (53 miles) apart, which may also indicate the Airbus A330-200 broke up before reaching the ocean/

from Bloomberg News:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=as_IAXADNn1c

[Saabeba]

Plane Talking blog by Ben Sandilands:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/

"Some details of a US carrier running one of the crash cause scenarios through its Airbus A330 flight simulators are being circulated on several private airline forums and on the public Pprune or Professional Pilots Rumour network.

It has been a long standing habit of airlines with a serious interest in flight standards to do flight simulations based on probable causes or using factual data as it comes to hand.

This is what happening in what is believed to have been a US flight simulator.

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

The scenario was conducted several times and the results at the end of each scenario produced consistent findings.

In an A330 simulator at FL 350 [35,000 feet] with a gross weight of 210 tonnes in ISA+10, with icing selected, the aircraft approaches a thunderstorm with a high intensity of turbulence. Due to the extreme turbulence, the autopilot disengages. Shortly thereafter a malfunction is selected to block both captain and first officer’s pitot tubes to replicate extreme ice formation.

The airplane reverts to alternate law with protection lost. There is a speed flag on both the captain and fo’s PFD [Primary Flight Display]. The severe turbulence activates repeated stall warnings. Manual thrust is being used at this time. The speed on the standby altimeter is reading 240kts or thereabouts with MACH 0.72. (From the GPS the ground speed is 350 kts or thereabouts. It is very difficult to read the instruments and ECAM warnings [fault and operational warnings].)

Updrafts take the aircraft up to FL 370 and produces a negative G of 0.2. The aircraft then enters severe downdrafts and the rate of descent averages more than 19,000 fpm [feet per minute]. The instinctive reaction is to pull on the stick to arrest the rate of descent. The aircraft shakes and buffets violently. The G force on the [pilot display] reads +5 but the instructor’s panel shows +8. The aircraft breaks up in flight around 20,000 ft.

After several attempts at this with all results being equal one could not see AF447 sending out any distress signals if this is what happened to them.

The email ends with a reference to any attempt to access the aircraft’s electronic manuals to trouble shoot the problems.

Applying an unreliable airspeed memory item would have proven to be very difficult because of the violent shaking and opening a QRH for an ADR check procedure even less likely.

This scenario is now being given considerably credibility in so far as it goes because the ACARS automated messages received by the Air France operations base in Paris indicate the pitots that measure airspeed failed at 0210 GMT on 1 June four minutes before the last message, an alert concerning vertical cabin speed, which derived from the air pressure value inside the jet.

It does not however explain why the jet was flown into such a violent storm cell when flights all around it were navigating through them without issues.

Air France also confirmed three days after the crash that the externally mounted pitots and static points manufactured by Thales had been found faulty in a serious of inflight incidents, leading the airline late in April to decide to replace all of them by the end of June.

However Air France has not explained why it initially blamed lightning as a possible factor in the disaster or claimed, incorrectly, that the ACARS messages recorded unprecedented electrical faults and short circuits.

The messages show no such thing, and give no support to what Air France said at the outset, while the lightning claim was nonsense. It is difficult to imagine that Air France did not know well before it conceded the flight was missing and officially feared lost that ACARS had identified autopilot disconnection and pitot or air speed data failures at the outset."