I have to agree with Dustin, it can really happen "anywhere" and to "anyone" who happens to be on the ground at that time.
Ok, finally. After a couple of days of limited research here is my counterpoint with some statistics to back it up.
There is the emotional response and then there is the logical response to this type of accident. The emotional response, which is understandably experienced by the average person who derives most of their information from the 6 o'clock news, is that airplanes falling out of the sky and killing people on the ground is a very real threat. This concern is similar, IMO, to the fear of flying in small airplanes. When one receives their information from the headline news media, one tends to develop a somewhat skewed interpretation of the probabilities. You know the adage: "Bad news sells."
This point is also demonstrated in the average citizen's perception of violent crime. Ask someone on the street if they think that violent crime is on the rise in the US and you will most likely receive a resounding "YES." However, statistics prove that violent crime has been on the decline in the US for the last several years. Media sensationalism is to blame for the disparity here.
The logical response, however, is to interpret and understand the statistics of these types of accidents with the goal of putting the probability into perspective. My interpretation of your and the other poster's reply about "this could happen anywhere" falls into a more emotional than logical response (respectfully speaking).
As an active general aviation pilot I always had a gut feeling that aviation accidents (any aircraft accident, not just GA) that either kill or injure random people on the ground make up a very low percentage of the total type of accidents. As well, the total number of people killed or injured on the ground by aviation accidents is also very low, year to year.
However, to prove this I had to get a hold of the raw data and do some analysis. While one could simply go to the
NTSB Aviation Accident Database Query page on the web, the ability to query for this specific theory is too limited on that page. The better option is to download the entire accident database, made freely available by the NTSB, and import it into a PC-based accident database management tool for developing one's own comprehensive SQL queries.
In my case I downloaded the entire NTSB accident database, found
here, and imported it into MySQL, a free and fully robust database server tool. From there I queried the database to count how many accidents injured or killed ground-based people.
For those interested, here's what I discovered -
Note: These results are for US-based accidents only and exclude the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Also, I only went back to 1990, which gives a 17 year picture (I believe a statistician would agree this is a good sample set).
| |--------- | ACCIDENTS | -----------| | |--GRO | UND--| | | |----------- | PROBABILITY | -----------| |
Year | Total | Gnd Inj/Death | % of Total | Deaths | Injuries | | Dying | | Injured |
1990 | 927 | 6 | 0.6% | 4 | 3 | | 1 in 62,197,731 | | 1 in 82,930,308 |
1991 | 1126 | 5 | 0.4% | 3 | 5 | | 1 in 84,008,402 | | 1 in 50,405,041 |
1992 | 2212 | 11 | 0.5% | 4 | 10 | | 1 in 63,825,384 | | 1 in 25,530,153 |
1993 | 2147 | 14 | 0.7% | 6 | 10 | | 1 in 43,103,409 | | 1 in 25,862,045 |
1994 | 2108 | 18 | 0.9% | 7 | 43 | | 1 in 37,426,074 | | 1 in 6,092,617 |
1995 | 2127 | 12 | 0.6% | 7 | 9 | | 1 in 37,912,613 | | 1 in 29,487,588 |
1996 | 2013 | 10 | 0.5% | 6 | 10 | | 1 in 44,806,390 | | 1 in 26,883,834 |
1997 | 1949 | 16 | 0.8% | 6 | 15 | | 1 in 45,388,873 | | 1 in 18,155,549 |
1998 | 2009 | 16 | 0.8% | 7 | 14 | | 1 in 39,410,510 | | 1 in 19,705,255 |
1999 | 2000 | 12 | 0.6% | 4 | 48 | | 1 in 69,864,982 | | 1 in 5,822,082 |
2000 | 1950 | 6 | 0.3% | 2 | 7 | | 1 in 141,108,476 | | 1 in 40,316,707 |
2001 | 1830 | 16 | 0.9% | 12 | 28 | | 1 in 23,768,857 | | 1 in 10,186,653 |
2002 | 1814 | 11 | 0.6% | 5 | 11 | | 1 in 57,625,195 | | 1 in 26,193,270 |
2003 | 1869 | 12 | 0.6% | 6 | 20 | | 1 in 48,466,004 | | 1 in 14,539,801 |
2004 | 1720 | 6 | 0.3% | 0 | 9 | | n/a | | 1 in 32,626,462 |
2005 | 1781 | 10 | 0.6% | 5 | 20 | | 1 in 59,301,412 | | 1 in 14,825,353 |
2006 | 1593 | 10 | 0.6% | 5 | 11 | | 1 in 59,879,697 | | 1 in 27,218,044 |
As you can see, the probability of being killed on the ground by an airplane is approximately 1 in 55 million each year and being injured is approximately 1 in 25 million each year.
To compare, the one year probability of dying while riding a motorcycle are 1 in 79,121(*), the odds of falling from stairs or steps are 1 in 183,155(*), and the odds of dying in a car are 1 in 18,412(*)
(*) source:
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm)
This is a bit much but I wanted to back up my thoughts with the statistics.
And again, in no way do I mean any disrespect to you in this thread or more importantly to the families of those killed or injured by this accident.