I've just doctored the graphic one last time, to include a red dotted-line extension of the flight path from the 4.8 nm point, imagining if the approach had continued beyond that point at the same descent angle. Extrapolating the descent rate from the previous data points, they would have reached the water about 1 nm further on (at the 3.8 nm point), which would have been about 20 seconds after they passed the 4.8 nm point.
I was going to let the graphic stand and shut up and let folks comment on it without trying to start anything myself, but now that I noticed this, I have to ask (rhetorically) did anyone in the crew have eyes outside the cockpit? Was anyone situationally aware of what was going on?
I wonder if the low altitude warning from ATC was their first notice that they were off glideslope. Note that the descent angle was increasing over the 3 nm (or roughly 1 minute) prior to the 4.8 nm data point. The radio call from the aircraft in response to ATC's warning came 20-ish seconds after the warning was issued, and didn't sound real confident and certain - as if they were still processing the warning.
I originally thought, OK, they got a little low and went around, no huge deal. Now that I see this data graphically, it chills me a little bit, and I have to echo PHXCONNXrunner's question in his original post: disaster averted?